26 September 2007


If I did the math right, had I started Tony Romo this weekend, as I had done the first two weeks of this season, I would have actually won this week’s matchup against The Mana Junkies. Despite Romo’s excellent play thus far this season, I felt his matchup against the Chicago Bears defense this weekend was unfavorable, whereas Vince Young’s matchup against New Orleans had much more potential. As it worked out, it wasn’t an unmitigated disaster, as Young had a very good game, his best of the season so far. He just didn’t do quite as well as Romo. Whether it was a Bears’ defense decimated by injuries, or the idea that Romo and the Cowboys’ offense is for REAL, the fact is that Romo’s slightly better fantasy performance would have helped me.

But it shouldn’t even matter.

Look at Ronnie Brown’s numbers for The Mana Junkies. 47.1 fantasy points is phenomenal, and I feel confident when I say that Brown’s performance against the Jets this past Sunday is the best game he’ll ever have in the NFL. The point is that breakout performances like Brown’s can never be predicted, and certainly can’t be managed or countered in fantasy football.

Look at Yahoo’s projected scores for this week’s matchup. Our beloved Rough Ryders were favored by 60 points against a team that had FOUR players not even playing this weekend. By any rational thought, this weekend should have been an ugly, lopsided victory, but instead, Ronnie Brown happens…

And Hines Ward leaves his game with a knee injury after one catch.

And Calvin Johnson leaves his game with a back injury after two catches.

And Lance Briggs leaves his game with a groin injury at the end of the second quarter.

And LaDainian Tomlinson is once again (mostly) shut down in another tough matchup against a very good Packers’ defense. San Diego plays KC next Sunday, and I gotta believe this is the week LT finally delivers. 47.1 fantasy points for Ronnie Brown is mostly absurd, but 47.1 fantasy points for Tomlinson is certainly rational.

Elsewhere on my team, Chad Johnson had another great game, and is currently the #1 receiver in the NFL, so I feel pretty good about grabbing him with my #2 draft pick. There seems to be no stopping the Bengals’ passing game, and now with RB Rudi Johnson’s hamstring injury, they may need to rely on the passing game more than ever.

Marshawn Lynch continues to be the sole bright spot on one of the most inept offenses (Buffalo) in the NFL. If their passing game was only slightly effective, and Buffalo could get into the Red Zone, Lynch might actually get to score a TD once in awhile. Let’s see what happens now that JP Losman is injured and Trent Edwards takes over the Bills’ reins. It can’t get any worse.
It can get worse for our beloved Rough Ryders, though...This is a matchup that we definitely should have won, but more importantly, it was a weekend that saw injuries that will probably have a negative impact on the team...If two of my three starting wide receivers are out for any amount of time, it's gonna be a long, tough season. And if Lance Briggs is out for any significant amount of time, not only do I lose his fantasy value, but having the Bears defensive unit on my team will take a hit as well...Then keep in mind that the Bears have lost four defensive starters this past weekend.
I hope I'm wrong, but when this season is over, I may be pointing back at this week three, because this may have been when the entire Rough Ryder season started to unravel.

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